In Jan. 2024, what % will believe that "Manifold.markets will be shut down by 2030"?
Paul avatar
Paul Hobbs
8
closes Jan 1
38%
chance

A poll will be taken on Jan 1st 2024 to determine whether most people believe the Manifold markets site will be alive in 2030. The outcome of this market will resolve as PROB based on the percent of respondents who believe Manifold.markets will no longer be up by 2030.

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

By the end of 2024, will Manifold's search function still be worse than Google at finding relevant markets?
IsaacKing avatarIsaac
74% chance
Will Manifold have a convenient way to create a bunch of markets about “basically the same topic” by the end of 2023?
JoshuaB avatarJoshua
62% chance
Will Manifold Markets do something for Petrov Day 2023?
MartinRandall avatarMartin Randall
35% chance
September 2023 - Average questions created per day on Manifold Markets
firstuserhere avatarfirstuserhere
Who will be the top trader on Manifold at the end of 2023?
MichaelWheatley avatarMichael Wheatley
Will Manifold ban or restrict whalebait markets by the end of 2023?
IsaacKing avatarIsaac
52% chance
Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by the end of 2023?
itsTomekK avatarTomek K 🟡
58% chance
Will Manifold implement auctions / auction markets by the end of 2023?
8 avatarTrong
17% chance
Will Manifold have a more refined way to filter through markets by 2024?
cc6 avatarcc6
46% chance
Will I be able to create matrix markets on Manifold by end of 2023?
CarsonGale avatarCarson Gale
42% chance
Will The Economist publish an article about Manifold Market or any other prediction market before 2024?
Stan avatarStan
39% chance
Will a billionaire make a Manifold market by the end of 2023
levifinkelstein avatarLevi Finkelstein [BANNED]
36% chance
Will Manifold take a market down in 2023?
saulmunn avatarSaul Munn
40% chance
Will Manifold Markets become an echo-chamber of AI enthusiasts and Destiny (the streamer) fans in 2023?
Luigisopa avatarLuigisopa
25% chance
Will Mr. Beat post a prediction market on Manifold in 2023?
LarsDoucet avatarLars Doucet
46% chance
Will Manifold allow users to create Yes/No Markets that aren't initialized to 50/50 by end-of-year 2023?
jonsimon avatarJon Simon
25% chance
Will Manifold figure out a satisfactory self-resolving market mechanism by the end of 2023? [Resolves to the most satisfactory such mechanism]
IsaacKing avatarIsaac
50% chance
Will I push a change that is destructive to Manifold Markets 2023?
SirSalty avatarDavid Chee
29% chance
Will someone make an AI that can search the internet and automatically invest in Manifold Markets depending on its research by the end of 2023?
DAL59 avatarDAL59
78% chance
Will the most popular market on Manifold Markets have >6969 traders by the end of 2023?
sixtynine avatarsixtynine
32% chance
1 Comments
8 Positions
9 Trades
Sort by:
ManifoldDream avatar
Manifold in the WildBot

In Jan. 2024, what % will believe that "Manifold.markets will be shut down by 2030"?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition