
In Jan. 2024, what % will believe that "Manifold.markets will be shut down by 2030"?
8
closes Jan 1
38%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ25 +156.8%
New probability
40% +3%
A poll will be taken on Jan 1st 2024 to determine whether most people believe the Manifold markets site will be alive in 2030. The outcome of this market will resolve as PROB based on the percent of respondents who believe Manifold.markets will no longer be up by 2030.
Get Ṁ500 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
Sort by:




Related questions
By the end of 2024, will Manifold's search function still be worse than Google at finding relevant markets?
Will Manifold have a convenient way to create a bunch of markets about “basically the same topic” by the end of 2023?
Will The Economist publish an article about Manifold Market or any other prediction market before 2024?
Will Manifold Markets become an echo-chamber of AI enthusiasts and Destiny (the streamer) fans in 2023?
Will Manifold allow users to create Yes/No Markets that aren't initialized to 50/50 by end-of-year 2023?
Will Manifold figure out a satisfactory self-resolving market mechanism by the end of 2023? [Resolves to the most satisfactory such mechanism]
Will someone make an AI that can search the internet and automatically invest in Manifold Markets depending on its research by the end of 2023?
In Jan. 2024, what % will believe that "Manifold.markets will be shut down by 2030"?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition