Will the S&P/Case-Schiller U.S. National Home Price Index (CSUSHPINSA) Be Below 215.0 by June 1st, 2024?
15
180Ṁ3161resolved Jun 5
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ63 | |
| 2 | Ṁ49 | |
| 3 | Ṁ27 | |
| 4 | Ṁ24 | |
| 5 | Ṁ20 |
Sort by:
A fall from 293 to 215 is a 27% drop, which seems very unlikely to me (as much as this Georgist, Yimby, soon-to-be-first-time-homebuyer would love to see it happen!!) based on the spread of forecasts by big research firms such as the ones listed in this article: https://fortune.com/2023/05/10/housing-market-home-price-predictions/. A reduction like that would sadly probably only result from some kind of really massive economic catastrophe (the bottom of the post-2007 housing market was a similar ~27% peak-to-trough drop).
Related questions
Related questions
Before Jan 1, 2027, US home prices will at some point be 20% lower than today, as measured by Case Schiller index
20% chance
Will the median price of houses sold in the US drop below $400,000 by Q1 2025?
16% chance
Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?
45% chance
Will US Housing Prices Drop by 20%+ by the End of 2030?
32% chance
Will September 2024 YoY housing CPI exceed 2%?
99% chance
Will September 2024 YoY housing CPI exceed 1%?
99% chance
Will Real Estate Prices in the US increase by at least 25% by the end of 2027?
46% chance
Will the S&P record a historic low, a 20% drop, before April 2025?
22% chance
Will the CPI (less food and energy) be above 373.03 on Sept 2027?
50% chance