Will Academic Capture Become a Topic of 5X Interest Than Baseline by Year End 2033?
4
29
Ṁ90Ṁ130
2034
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
@duck_master Baseline was intended to be the date of market creation.
https://manifold.markets/api/v0/slug/will-academic-capture-become-a-topi
"createdTime":1684970270515,Assuming that this timestamp is in milliseconds:
GMT: Wednesday, May 24, 2023 11:17:50.515 PM
So baseline for that year, 2023.
More related questions
Related questions
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
29% chance
Will at least 15 top-100 universities have a faculty-led technical AGI safety effort by the end of 2024?
44% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?
44% chance
Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?
34% chance
Will at least 25 top-100 universities have a faculty-led technical AGI safety effort by the end of 2024?
28% chance
Will any submitted paper for ICLR 2024 be a "game changer" by 2030?
50% chance
Will any top 10 university admit significantly more Asian students in the next 5 years?
85% chance
Will over 20% of Program on AI and Reasoning (PAIR) students ACROSS ALL YEARS be active manifold users by EOY 2024?
41% chance
Will mechanistic interpretability have more academic impact than representation engineering by the end of 2025?
67% chance
Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?