Prediction Markets Poll: If You Had To Pick One Reason, Why Are Decade-Plus Prediction Markets Unimportant?
Manifold User RetentionPrediction Markets General Discussion
24
resolved Dec 1
Inherent Unpredictability: I believe that the further we try to predict into the future, the more unpredictable and uncertain outcomes become, making it pure speculation rather than useful information.
Lack of Immediate Utility: For me, predictions that are set a decade or more into the future lack immediate actionable insights. They may be interesting, but they don't offer tangible benefits or guidance for present-day decisions.
Potential for Misleading Information: Long-term prediction markets might attract more speculative and less-informed participants. There's a risk that these markets could perpetuate misconceptions or biases about the future.
Changing Variables Over Time: Over a span of a decade or more, countless unforeseen events, technological advancements, and policy changes can occur. These can drastically alter the trajectory of a prediction.
Opportunity Cost: The resources, time, and attention spent on decade-plus prediction markets could be better utilized in shorter-term markets, which might offer more direct insights, actionable data, and clearer return on investment.
Other

This is not a true dichtomy (quintomy?), but just a point for discussion.

Keying off of this market here, many voters selected, "Decade Plus Long Markets Are Unimportant," -- even if you didn't select that as your favorite, you might choose one of the reasons given in this poll as a hypothetical. You can go back and change your previous vote if you already voted here of course too.

Other question for the converse answer if you wish to answer as well:

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100% opportunity cost for me. I think the long term markets are interesting and valuable. It's often actually easier to make long term predictions than short term ones (e.g. will the s&p 500 be higher or lower than today in 1 week or 10 years).

But if I'm short on funds I'll tend to sell my long term positions and move them into short term ones. Long term markets don't move very quickly so it's also easy to think (well I can just sell x for now to buy y and once y closes I'll buy x back at roughly the same price). I might never actually go back and buy x though.

@JeremiahKellick I also agree with you. I also think that long term markets resolve pretty rarely which somewhat ruins the purpose of a market (which is to have market resolutions as a form of continual feedback).

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