Prediction Markets Poll: If You Had To Pick One Reason, Why Are Decade-Plus Prediction Markets Unimportant?
24
resolved Dec 1
Inherent Unpredictability: I believe that the further we try to predict into the future, the more unpredictable and uncertain outcomes become, making it pure speculation rather than useful information.
Lack of Immediate Utility: For me, predictions that are set a decade or more into the future lack immediate actionable insights. They may be interesting, but they don't offer tangible benefits or guidance for present-day decisions.
Potential for Misleading Information: Long-term prediction markets might attract more speculative and less-informed participants. There's a risk that these markets could perpetuate misconceptions or biases about the future.
Changing Variables Over Time: Over a span of a decade or more, countless unforeseen events, technological advancements, and policy changes can occur. These can drastically alter the trajectory of a prediction.
Opportunity Cost: The resources, time, and attention spent on decade-plus prediction markets could be better utilized in shorter-term markets, which might offer more direct insights, actionable data, and clearer return on investment.
Other
This is not a true dichtomy (quintomy?), but just a point for discussion.
Keying off of this market here, many voters selected, "Decade Plus Long Markets Are Unimportant," -- even if you didn't select that as your favorite, you might choose one of the reasons given in this poll as a hypothetical. You can go back and change your previous vote if you already voted here of course too.
Other question for the converse answer if you wish to answer as well:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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