Will robotic delivery be here by 2029 at a scale to replace a significant share of UPS drivers?

1kṀ644

2029

20%

chance

ALL

From @JamesMedlock on Twitter : https://twitter.com/jdcmedlock/status/1689091721513279488

The resolution criteria for this bet would be if more than 10% of UPS drivers be replaced.
https://twitter.com/jdcmedlock/status/1689094019069140992

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Manifold currently predicts 13% that AI wipes out humanity before 2030 (https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8), and a 29% of UPS drivers being replaced. So that means you have like a 16% chance of actually getting your package delivered by a robot. 🙃

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

13% chance. If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO. If humanity is not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES. If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve. See also: @/Tripping/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6d1e8126d974 @/JamesBills/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6e8e547afa66 @/JamesDillard/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th

@LoganZoellner Maybe the robots will keep whatever roboticized thing UPS evolves into, they'll probably need their things delivered too! And if they keep Manifold around, maybe they'll resolve this YES for us. I believe.