Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially certified as the winner of the May 26, 2026, Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff election. The primary source for the official results will be the Texas Secretary of State’s election results portal.

If, for any reason, the runoff is canceled, a re-vote is ordered, or neither of the named candidates is certified as the winner (e.g., due to a candidate withdrawing, passing away, or other disqualification prior to certification), the market will resolve to "Other."

Background

The May 26, 2026, primary runoff follows the March 3, 2026, primary election, in which no candidate secured the majority necessary to avoid a runoff. The contest features incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. This race has been characterized as a significant clash between the establishment and hardline conservative factions of the Texas Republican Party. As of the runoff period, both candidates have engaged in a high-profile campaign regarding the party's direction and conservative credentials.

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