Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if the Iranian Army (Artesh) formally joins forces with protesters to fight against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Resolution requires credible reporting from major international news outlets confirming that the Army has:
Publicly declared support for protesters against the IRGC, or
Engaged in direct military action alongside protesters against IRGC forces
Resolution is based on verifiable reporting from sources such as Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, or equivalent international news organizations. The market resolves NO if no such alliance occurs by the specified deadline.
Background
Tensions remain high between Iran and the U.S. in the wake of a bloody crackdown on protests that began on Dec. 28, triggered by the collapse of Iran's currency, the rial, and swept the country for about two weeks. This event has been the largest uprising since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The ensuing crackdown, carried out under Ali Khamenei's and senior officials' order for live fire on protesters, resulted in a massacre that left tens of thousands of protesters dead, making it the largest massacre in modern Iranian history.
The Iranian army says it will defend the country's "national interests" as antigovernment protests continue to escalate amid widespread arrests and an internet blackout. In a statement published by semi-official news sites, the military accused Israel and "hostile terrorist groups" of seeking to "undermine the country's public security", stating "The Army, under the command of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, together with other armed forces, in addition to monitoring enemy movements in the region, will resolutely protect and safeguard national interests."
Considerations
The Iranian Army and IRGC are distinct military institutions with separate command structures. The Army answers to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, while the IRGC operates as a parallel paramilitary force. Historically, the two have maintained separate roles, with the IRGC handling internal security and regime protection. A formal alliance between the Army and protesters would represent an unprecedented institutional split within Iran's security apparatus.
1,000