Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if any of the following major market research and advisory firms publish a report by June 30, 2028, stating that global artificial intelligence (AI) revenues, global AI market size, or total global AI spending for the calendar year 2027 (or by the end of 2027) was $500 billion USD or greater:

• Statista Market Insights (via the "Artificial Intelligence - Worldwide" Outlook)

• International Data Corporation (IDC) (via the IDC Worldwide Semiannual AI Tracker or Global AI Spending Guide)

• Gartner (via official Gartner Forecasts)

• Bloomberg Intelligence

If the finalized reports from these firms collectively indicate that the 2027 global AI market size, revenue, or spending was below $500 billion USD, or if no eligible source publishes a figure of $500 billion USD or more by the June 30, 2028 cutoff, this market will resolve to NO.

In the event of conflicting data among the listed sources, the market will resolve based on the majority consensus of the available reports. If only one of the listed providers has published a finalized 2027 figure by the cutoff date, that report will be used as the sole source of truth.

Background

Estimates for the global AI market vary significantly depending on whether a firm measures software alone, or includes hardware (such as AI-optimized servers and semiconductors) and services:

• Broad Definitions (Software, Hardware & Services): Gartner projected in late 2026 that total global AI spending would reach $3.64 trillion by 2027, driven heavily by massive infrastructure capital expenditures.

• Moderate Definitions (AI-centric Software & Solutions): IDC estimated in 2024 that global AI spending would exceed $512 billion by 2027. Statista Market Insights estimated the global AI market size at $390.9 billion for 2025, forecasting it to grow to $514.5 billion by 2026.

• Narrow Definitions (Software-only): Under narrower software-only frameworks, Gartner estimated in 2024 that global AI software spending would reach $297 billion by 2027.

Because of these differing methodologies, this market resolves to YES if any of the major tracking firms confirm that the broader global AI market size, spending, or revenue has surpassed the $500 billion mark for 2027.

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