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Will the room-temperature superconductor market get more than 6000 unique traders?

Ṁ1.4kṀ37k

resolved Sep 2

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Specifically this one:

https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

34% chance. Preprint here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008 Companion paper here with description of synthesis: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037 Update 2023-07-27: Pasting my comment on resultion criteria We’re clearly all here because a) it’s fun, and b) we’re interested in room temperature s…

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In what year will a room temperature superconductor be commercially available?

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Will room-temperature superconductors (such as LK-99) achieve commercial adoption by 2028?

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predictedNO

/StrayClimb/will-the-main-lk99-market-reach-6k related

predictedNO

When will this resolve?

I'm assuming this is by close date (september 1) and not, before it resolves.

The following market is currently higher at the moment: https://manifold.markets/Soren/will-the-roomtemperature-supercondu-887fddb271fa

@Soren That one has a close date of December 31.

A bit meta, but interesting how the incentives of prediction markets play out. Yes voters are highly incentivized to recruit new participants in this market, as a bit of self-fulfilling prophecy.

This market is relevant to this one: https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-the-roomtemperature-supercondu-ad534e70cf6f

Will the room-temperature superconductor market get more than 5000 unique traders?

92% chance. Specifically, this one: (https://manifold.markets/embed/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre)

People are also trading

In what year will a room temperature superconductor be commercially available?

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2027?

3% chance

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2036?

23% chance

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2100?

65% chance

Will room-temperature superconductors (such as LK-99) achieve commercial adoption by 2028?

4% chance

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2039?

32% chance

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2040?

34% chance

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2029?

6% chance

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2030?

9% chance

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2037?

26% chance

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