Will the room-temperature superconductor market get more than 7,000 unique traders?

#Science

707

Ṁ21K

Ṁ1.1K

2025

14%

chance

ALL

https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

37% chance. Preprint here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008 Companion paper here with description of synthesis: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037 Update 2023-07-27: Pasting my comment on resultion criteria We’re clearly all here because a) it’s fun, and b) we’re interested in room temperature s…

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Will these 14 Self-Experiment markets have more than 250 combined Traders?

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Only about 15 new traders every week and we'll get there.

predicts NO

@Soren can you confirm that this is by market close?

predicts NO

@NicoDelon Yes

predicts NO

@Soren Why did you extend it by a year then—after I asked the question? People had been betting with a 2023 EOY close date in mind. This should resolve NO.

@NicoDelon I guess Soren meant by close of the linked market

predicts NO

@MartinRandall Ah that makes more sense though that was ambiguous.

predicts NO

@NicoDelon What else could have “by market close” meant?

@Soren the time this market you created was set to close

sold Ṁ458 of NO

@jskf Yes. That’s normally the question that people ask. Most of the other derivative markets were like that.

predicts NO

@jskf @NicoDelon Oh I see, I apologize. If anybody feels cheated I can buy their no shares as if this resolved to “no”

predicts NO

@Soren I’m okay and it’s not a big deal. But the fact that the market was so low suggests I wasn’t alone in thinking the relevant cutoff was EOY 2023. Our mistake for making that assumption though.