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@Soren can you confirm that this is by market close?

@NicoDelon Yes

@Soren Why did you extend it by a year then—after I asked the question? People had been betting with a 2023 EOY close date in mind. This should resolve NO.

@NicoDelon I guess Soren meant by close of the linked market

@MartinRandall Ah that makes more sense though that was ambiguous.

@NicoDelon What else could have “by market close” meant?

@Soren the time this market you created was set to close

@jskf Yes. That’s normally the question that people ask. Most of the other derivative markets were like that.

@jskf @NicoDelon Oh I see, I apologize. If anybody feels cheated I can buy their no shares as if this resolved to “no”

@Soren I’m okay and it’s not a big deal. But the fact that the market was so low suggests I wasn’t alone in thinking the relevant cutoff was EOY 2023. Our mistake for making that assumption though.

Possible arbitrage: https://manifold.markets/ItsMe/will-the-real-superconductor-be-the

Will the real superconductor be the friends we made along the way? (check desc.)

49% chance. Resolves YES if the main superconductor market (https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre) resolves no and it gets more than 7000 traders. Etymology: "via Old French from Latin conductor, from conducere ‘bring together’" [link preview]

Fellow Russian Bots. You know what you need to do!

10k > 7k
https://manifold.markets/StrayClimb/will-the-main-lk99-market-reach-10k

Will the main LK-99 market reach 10k traders in 2023

45% chance. It’s sitting at 1.6k today, July 30 2023 https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre [link preview]