Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?
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The market resolves Yes if there is a front in Crimea at any stage before a peace settlement or a permanent ceasefire is established.
This is only for fighting on land between conventional armies. Bombing, long-range artillery, sabotage activities, uprisings, assassinations etc. will not count as fighting.
By Crimea I mean the borders of the administrative unit as seen by both Ukraine and Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea.
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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