Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?
66
13k
2030
25%
chance

The market resolves Yes if there is a front in Crimea at any stage before a peace settlement or a permanent ceasefire is established.

This is only for fighting on land between conventional armies. Bombing, long-range artillery, sabotage activities, uprisings, assassinations etc. will not count as fighting.

By Crimea I mean the borders of the administrative unit as seen by both Ukraine and Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea.

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How does this resolve if the war is still going in 2030 and the lines never reached crimea?

@JonathanRay I think I'll postpone the closing date.

@Cloudbox No. The description rules out bombing or long-range artillery, and drones fall into the same category. This only resolves yes if there's an actual front line, with land-based armies.

predicts YES

@PS that's fair. it does say that. Your right. :)