
Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?
125
1kṀ22k2030
9%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The market resolves Yes if there is a front in Crimea at any stage before a peace settlement or a permanent ceasefire is established.
This is only for fighting on land between conventional armies. Bombing, long-range artillery, sabotage activities, uprisings, assassinations etc. will not count as fighting.
By Crimea I mean the borders of the administrative unit as seen by both Ukraine and Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea.
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
9% chance
On the 12th anniversary of the Russian annexation of Crimea, will the Russia-Ukraine war still be ongoing?
71% chance
Will the Ukraine war end with Ukraine controlling nearly all Ukrainian territory INCLUDING Crimea?
3% chance
By the time a ceasefire or peace treaty between Ukraine & Russia is signed, will UA partially control Crimea?
3% chance
Will Volodomyr Zelenskyy be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war?
69% chance
Will there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description)
19% chance
Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?
58% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the Russia-Ukraine war?
8% chance
Will Putin remain in power if Crimea returns to Ukraine?
26% chance
Will Russo-Ukrainian war begin again within 10 years of ending?