Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?

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2030

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The market resolves Yes if there is a front in Crimea at any stage before a peace settlement or a permanent ceasefire is established.

This is only for fighting on land between conventional armies. Bombing, long-range artillery, sabotage activities, uprisings, assassinations etc. will not count as fighting.

By Crimea I mean the borders of the administrative unit as seen by both Ukraine and Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea.

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My thesis:

Ukraine does not have enough manpower to open a second front.

They are already fighting on two fronts. At the beginning of the war they were fighting on three as Russia attempted a northern attack from Belarus directly at Kyiv, which they successfully defending against. The current theater has an Eastern front and a Southern Front. The Southern front includes Kherson Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and Donetsk Oblast. Kherson Oblast is currently partially occupied by the Russian Army and is the Oblast with a land connection to Crimea.

@EugeneBixby Yes indeed. And now they've opened a second Kursk front. I was definitely wrong 😂

How does this resolve if the war is still going in 2030 and the lines never reached crimea?

@JonathanRay I think I'll postpone the closing date.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/may/07/russia-ukraine-war-live-kyiv-launches-wave-of-drone-attacks-on-crimea-says-governor does this count

@Cloudbox No. The description rules out bombing or long-range artillery, and drones fall into the same category. This only resolves yes if there's an actual front line, with land-based armies.