Background

The US currently maintains significant tariffs on Chinese imports under Section 301, with rates varying by product category. Recent policy changes and announcements indicate substantial increases in tariff rates:

• The Biden administration announced increases in Section 301 tariffs on various Chinese goods effective September 2024

• Starting January 1, 2025, certain products like semiconductors will see tariffs increase from 25% to 50%

• President-elect Trump has announced plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on existing tariffs effective January 20, 2025

Resolution Criteria

The market will resolve based on the trade-weighted average tariff rate for all US imports from China during Q3-Q4 2025, as reported by official US government sources (such as the US International Trade Commission or US Treasury). If multiple official sources report different figures, the most authoritative source will be used.

Considerations

• The effective rate depends on the mix of products imported and their respective tariff rates

• Chinese counter-measures or trade negotiations could affect implementation of announced tariffs

• Some products may be granted exclusions or exemptions, affecting the overall effective rate

• Historical effective rates have sometimes differed from announced headline rates due to various exemptions and implementation details

• The transition between administrations in January 2025 may affect tariff policy implementation