This person does not have to be actually immortal (such a market would never resolve) but there needs to be a scientific consensus (that is widely reported on in the media) that this person could theoretically live forever barring force majeure.
This person must be at least 25 years old at time of reporting on their “immortality.”
No one reported as “immortal” before market creation qualifies.
This “person” must be non-digital and a “biologically complete” human being. (So help me God if someone posts a link to “The Immortal Henrietta Lacks” in the comments.) They must be capable of all activities that the average human is nowadays and cannot be immortal by way of indefinite suspended animation. In other words, don’t try to come up with ridiculous edge cases that satisfy the conditions as written but are against their spirit. I won’t be resolving to them; use common sense. They must literally be capable of living indefinitely, not in a figurative “your legacy will live on” or “endless chain of clones a la Foundation” way.
The “other” option is a catch-all “this will never happen” or “later than Gen G”. I may split these two options at some point.
Any good-faith questions involving resolution criteria are welcomed in the comments.
(If I am alive to resolve this market, it will supersede any other conditions stated above and lead to an unquestionable “Millennial” victory.)
For the purposes of this market, I define “Millennial” as someone born between (inclusive) 1981-1996. Every generation after that also comes in identical 15 year increments (1997-2012 and so on).
Related questions
@Broseph The names don't clearly define the relevant time ranges. We have to look them up, plus there's disagreement at the margins.
@Broseph I stick to the standard Cyrillic alphabet, standard Latin doesn't even have the required letters.
Gregorian calendar is used worldwide, unlike Latin that only a minority of humans use.
@NicoDelon I detail exactly my definitions in my description. If it’s still unclear, I’ll calculate them for the numerically challenged:
Millennial: 1981 - 1996
Zoomer: 1997 - 2012
Alpha: 2013 - 2028
Beta: 2029 - 2044
Gamma: 2045 - 2060
I don’t particularly care what other people think about disagreements at the margins of my cutoffs; if they don’t like them, they are free not to bet on this market…? It’s fine if you have a different opinion, but I welcome those who disagree with my definitions to create their own markets.
@Nhoj You believe at some point in the future there will be a scientific consensus widely reported on by the media that Kurzweil is effectively “immortal”?
@Broseph I believe in the catch-all that includes “never,” “younger than Gen G,” and “older than Millennial.” As a Gen Xer, I can only see it resolve as “other.”
@Broseph ‘You believe at some point in the future there will be a scientific consensus widely reported on by the media that Kurzweil is effectively “immortal”?’
Not really — I was only kidding. Sorry.