Immortality or Death by AGI?
31
1kṀ7312200
1D
1W
1M
ALL
40%
Immortality
18%
Death by AGI
42%
Neither
This resolves based on the best estimate of what happened to the plurality of users that were active on manifold.markets during the year 2023
Definitions
Immortality: Being over 200 years old with an annual death probability of less than 0.1%
Death by AGI: Any non-natural death where AGI plays a role in any form. For example, a nuclear war initiated with the involvement of AGI in the decision-making process or in building the nukes would count for this option
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Will we get AGI before 2033?
67% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
58% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
63% chance
By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on AGI by 2050?
50% chance
By when will we have AGI?
What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040?
Will human intelligence solve aging before AGI does?
14% chance
Will we get AGI before 2046?
86% chance
Doom if AGI by 2040?
45% chance
By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on no AGI by 2050?
20% chance
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2033?
67% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
58% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
63% chance
By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on AGI by 2050?
50% chance
By when will we have AGI?
What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040?
Will human intelligence solve aging before AGI does?
14% chance
Will we get AGI before 2046?
86% chance
Doom if AGI by 2040?
45% chance
By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on no AGI by 2050?
20% chance