Any official announcement by the US president or NASA of a new humans-on-mars program, or any relevant elected or unelected official would count as Yes.
A humans-on-mars funding commitment by congress would also count as a Yes.
An announcement by Musk would count as a Yes if it is clear that the funding source is intended to be US government funds.
SpaceX getting unrelated government contracts and then spending the money on a Mars mission would not be sufficient.
Press/Expert rumours of such a plan would not be sufficient.
I will judge the situation on 1st April and make a determination.
Deadline is 00:00 on 1st April 2025.
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"we will pursue our manifest destiny into the stars, launching American astronauts to plant the Stars and Stripes on the planet Mars." - Donald Trump speaking as US president.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-trump-inauguration-speech-2025/
Opinions wanted on this X post:
https://x.com/rookisaacman/status/1864346915183157636
I am honored to receive President Trump’s nomination to serve as the next Administrator of NASA. [...] Americans will walk on the Moon and Mars
If the nomination goes ahead as suggested, I'm inclined to resolve as "yes".