Will the US government announce an intention to fund a human mission to Mars before the end of March 2025?
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Any official announcement by the US president or NASA of a new humans-on-mars program, or any relevant elected or unelected official would count as Yes.
A humans-on-mars funding commitment by congress would also count as a Yes.
An announcement by Musk would count as a Yes if it is clear that the funding source is intended to be US government funds.
SpaceX getting unrelated government contracts and then spending the money on a Mars mission would not be sufficient.
Press/Expert rumours of such a plan would not be sufficient.
I will judge the situation on 1st April and make a determination.
Deadline is 00:00 on 1st April 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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