For this market to resolve positive the following should happen:
Some resource has to be collected in space or on a celestial body other than Earth.
Something useful has to be produced out of this resource.
The product has to be used for the purposes other than studying the gathered sample.
Examples of types of stuff that would qualify:
Propellant (oxygen, hydrogen, methane etc.)
Oxygen, water for life support (provided some astronauts will consume them)
Construction material (e.g. Lunecrete)
Crops grown in the soil of another celestial body (like in Martian)
Stuff that doesn't count:
Anything made exclusively from the materials launched from Earth
Research samples collected only for analysis.
Small product samples count, as long as they are actually used.
The product doesn't need to return to Earth to be used, and it doesn't have to be used by a human. A robotic mission producing propellant for itself counts.
I will not bet on this market.
Clarification from 2024-02-12: Just energy or momentum are not enough, so solar panels and solar sails don't count.
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