When will the next probe successfully descend in the Venusian atmosphere?
14
482
2034
12%
Before 2026
33%
Before 2028
51%
Before 2030
61%
Before 2032
84%
Before 2034

At the moment there is one operational probe in orbit around Venus and several others have performed flybys in the last decade.

However the last time any probe successfully descended into Venusian atmosphere was in 1985 with Soviet mission Vega 2. That mission included both a lander which successfully landed on the surface where it survived for 56 minutes, and a balloon which stayed in communication for 2 full days while flying at the altitude of 50+ km.

This market will resolve positively when any new probe descends in the Venusian atmosphere and communicates with us after achieving sub-sonic speed (<400 m/s).

This question is a copy of the previous question /OlegEterevsky/when-will-a-spacecraft-softland-on , which was resolved N/A since there was some confusion regarding the specific resolution criteria.

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/OlegEterevsky/when-will-the-next-probe-successful

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Useful context is that Rocket Lab announced in 2020 that they are self-funding a venus orbiter + probe mission ("Venus Life Finder") as a demonstration of what a low-cost, and small sized interplanetary mission could achieve.

Originally scheduled to launch in 2023, their current estimate is for late 2024. It would have an approximately 1.5 year cruise phase.

Peter Beck, CEO of Rocket Lab, has described it as a "weekends and evenings" project.

The next Venus mission I'm aware of is the NASA funded DAVINCI mission. It includes a probe and is expected to launch NET mid 2029 with a 24 month cruise phase (June 2031).

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