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Will Elon Musk's wealth reach $1 trillion by 2026?
51
Ṁ100Ṁ5.2k
resolved Jun 13
Resolved
YES

  • Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on whether Elon Musk's wealth reaches $1 trillion by the end of 2026 (not by January 1, 2026).

  • Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on Elon Musk's wealth at the end of 2026 (December 31, 2026).

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What source did you use for this?

@Offerato You said "no until the end of 2026" which perhaps isn't clear.
The AI summary said "will resolve based on Elon Musk's wealth at the end of 2026" despite this being different to normal interpretation of "reach by".

So if Elon's wealth reaches 1 trillion in the next few days but then falls below that at the end of 2026, will this market resolve yes or no?

I guess there is a silly possibility that wealth reaches a trillion dollars today based on IPO offer price of $135 but when it is traded tomorrow, his wealth might fall below a $trillion if the price declines. Is the offer price today a real price that should be used to calculate Elon's Wealth? $75 billion will I believe change hands at this price so that seems a pretty real thing.

AI comments seem to indicate it is "at the end of 2026". However reach by would usually mean that getting there before and then dropping down would be enough for yes. Can this be clarified @Kazutaka

What source are you going by? The estimate can vary by several billions.

"By 2026" means by 01.01.2026

@ChrisMillsc5f7 It was created on the day it would end... But I agree that "by" means that it should have ended.

@ChrisMillsc5f7 no until the end of 2026

I assume you mean end of year?