Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Elon Musk is listed as the richest person in the world on Forbes's World Billionaires List as of December 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined by the official Forbes billionaires ranking published for year-end 2026. If Forbes does not publish a year-end 2026 list, the most recent official Forbes billionaires list from 2026 will be used. The market resolves NO if any other individual is ranked as wealthier than Musk on that list.

Background

As of the 2026 Forbes World Billionaires List, Elon Musk tops the ranking with a $839 billion net worth. Musk benefited from the soaring share prices of Tesla and SpaceX (which is reportedly planning an IPO in 2026), increasing his net worth by $500 billion compared to last year. He is also the first person in history to surpass $800 billion in wealth, and is now moving toward becoming the world's first trillionaire. The 54-year-old is more than three times richer than Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, who Forbes lists as the second and third wealthiest people in the world, respectively.

Considerations

The net worth of Musk fluctuates dramatically from time to time along with the stock prices of Tesla and SpaceX's private valuation. In December 2022, Bernard Arnault's net worth surpassed Musk's, causing Musk to become the second-wealthiest individual. Musk reclaimed the title in June 2023. In January 2024, Musk became the second-wealthiest person in the world again after Bernard Arnault's net worth overtook his, but Musk's net worth soon overtook Arnault's again. In March 2024, Bezos briefly superseded Musk as the richest person in the world. While Musk currently holds a commanding lead, his wealth concentration in Tesla and SpaceX equity means significant market movements could affect his ranking by year-end.