further reading:
https://www.science.org/content/article/final-puff-can-new-zealand-quit-smoking-good
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/14/world/asia/new-zealand-smoking-ban.html
Data provided by the health ministry of new zealand will be used to determine if the policy goal has been met. If the adult smoking rate is less than 5% at the end of 2025 then this question will resolve as YES.
https://www.health.govt.nz/publication/annual-update-key-results-2021-22-new-zealand-health-survey
8.0% of adults were daily smokers in 2021/22, down from 9.4% the previous year and 16.4% in 2011/12.
Close date updated to 2016-01-01 10:59 am
Close date updated to 2026-01-01 10:59 am
Dec 30, 10:52pm: Will New Zealand reach it's goal of becoming smoke-free before 2026 → Will fewer than 5% of adult New Zealanders will be smokers by the end of 2025
Dec 30, 10:53pm: Will fewer than 5% of adult New Zealanders will be smokers by the end of 2025 → Will fewer than 5% of adult New Zealanders be smokers by the end of 2025
Related questions
@IsaacKing the official name of the project is the Smokefree Aotearoa 2025 Action Plan, and it's goal is "by 2025 fewer than 5% of New Zealanders will be smokers".
This is the official website
https://www.smokefree.org.nz/smokefree-in-action/smokefree-aotearoa-2025
And this is the project statement https://www.health.govt.nz/publication/smokefree-aotearoa-2025-action-plan-auahi-kore-aotearoa-mahere-rautaki-2025
I don't think the title is misleading, since the media and the NZ government themselves have branded it essentially as "Smokefree"
@Odoacre If Infowars had a project called "prove the world is ruled by lizard people", and their criteria for success were "get one other website to post an article claiming the world is ruled by lizard people", do you think it would be correct to post a market with the title "will Infowars prove the world is ruled by lizard people?" and resolve it based on their given criteria for the project?
@IsaacKing The title is not any more misleading than the very many markets on here that require you carefully read the description before betting. Here the context makes it clear what smokefree means. You’re free to create another market.
@NicoDelon Could you explain how the existence of other markets with misleading titles makes this one less misleading?
@IsaacKing This one is actually much less misleading than many other ones. It’s a way of saying it’s not really misleading though, yeah, maybe scare quotes would be fine. Drop it and move along.
@IsaacKing I thought about it and there's really no reason not to change the title. Thanks for bringing this up.