Resolution criteria

The market resolves based on which candidate Joe Biden publicly endorses for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. An endorsement is defined as an explicit public statement of support (via official announcement, social media, campaign appearance, or media interview) for a specific candidate. The endorsement must occur on or before April 30, 2028.

If Biden endorses one of the listed candidates (Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, or Josh Shapiro), that answer resolves YES. If Biden makes no endorsement before April 30, 2028, the "No endorsement before April 30 2028" answer resolves YES. If Biden endorses someone not listed, the "Other" answer (automatically added) resolves YES.

Background

The 2028 Democratic primary faces a wide open field with no clear leader. In recent polling, Gavin Newsom leads with Pete Buttigieg as a main rival, with Kamala Harris also in contention. Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania's governor, is viewed as a strong moderate candidate—nobody has won as many votes as Shapiro has in Pennsylvania, and he's running for reelection in 2026 to build credibility for a potential presidential bid.

Considerations

Biden's endorsement timing and choice carry significant weight in Democratic primaries. Most candidates typically announce official runs after the midterm elections, meaning Biden's endorsement before April 30, 2028 would come relatively early in the primary process. The April 30 deadline captures the period before most early primary contests, making it a meaningful cutoff for assessing whether Biden actively intervenes in the race.