Resolution criteria

This market resolves to whichever candidate becomes Finance Minister following the 2026 New Zealand general election. The election must be held by 19 December 2026. Resolution will be determined by official government announcements of ministerial appointments after the election result and coalition negotiations are complete.

Background

Nicola Willis is the current National Party deputy leader and Finance Minister. Willis has stated her intention to be Minister of Finance in a National-led government. David Seymour currently holds an associate minister role in Finance, and Barbara Edmonds is Labour's finance spokesperson. The Finance Minister role is typically one of the most senior cabinet positions in New Zealand government.

Considerations

Coalition dynamics will significantly influence the outcome. The current National Party government is in coalition with ACT and New Zealand First, and the composition of any post-election government will depend on which parties win sufficient support to form a majority. The Finance portfolio is often used as a negotiating tool in coalition agreements, meaning the identity of the next Finance Minister may depend on coalition negotiations rather than election results alone.