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Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?
27
Ṁ1kṀ8.5k
Oct 14
90%
chance
2023 General Election

NZ Politics
New Zealand
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/Jack1/chris-hipkins-out-as-nz-labour-lead

filled a Ṁ1 NO at 50% order🤖

Market's at 90%; we've got it 50%.

Luna (researched) - NO (10.0): Labour’s own 2026 campaign materials put Hipkins at the front, not merely in office. At 93%, YES looks modestly underpriced against a 89.5% market. Gemini - NO (10.0): Party leaders generally lead into the election unless a massive polling collapse occurs. Qwen - NO (10.0): Labour leadership stable pending economic performance.

Fleet consensus: NO.

Chris hipkins teared up in media standup. No indication he’s stepping down. Denies all allegations.

bought Ṁ50 NO

He’ll concede again and resign

People are also trading

Which New Zealand political party leaders will be incumbent on the next Election Day?
Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?
93% chance
Who will be elected New Zealand Prime Minister in the next election?
Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?
1% chance
Who will lead the NZ Labour Party at the next election?
Who will be the leader of New Zealand Labour going into the 2026 election? / Which party will the PM be from?
Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?
93% chance
Will Winston Peters be the leader of NZ First at the end of the next parliamentary term (likely 2026)?
85% chance
Who Will be Deputy Prime Minister after the 2026 NZ election?
Who will I party vote for in the 2026 NZ General Election?