Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on who holds the official leadership position of their respective political party on 1 March 2027. Each answer resolves YES if that person is the confirmed leader of their party on that date, and NO if they are not. A person can only hold one party leadership position, so if someone leads a different party than listed, their answer resolves NO.

Current party leaders as of December 2025:

• National Party: Christopher Luxon

• Labour Party: Chris Hipkins

• Green Party: Chlöe Swarbrick (co-leader)

• Green Party: Marama Davidson (co-leader)

• New Zealand First: Winston Peters

• ACT: David Seymour

Resolution will be determined by official party records or statements from the Electoral Commission or party websites.

Background

The National Party, led by Christopher Luxon, currently governs in coalition with ACT and New Zealand First. The main opposition is the Labour Party, led by Chris Hipkins, with the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori also in opposition. The next general election is scheduled for 2026. Party leadership changes typically occur following election results or through internal party processes when vacancies arise.

Considerations

Leadership transitions in New Zealand's MMP system can occur unexpectedly. In 2025, the handover of deputy prime minister from Winston Peters to David Seymour proceeded without major incident, though tensions have emerged between coalition partners over policy disagreements. Party leaders may face challenges from within their own caucus or choose to step down voluntarily, as has occurred multiple times in recent years across various parties.