What will the state of my forecasting newsletter be at the end of 2023?
What will the state of my forecasting newsletter be at the end of 2023?
11
680Ṁ525
resolved Jan 14
100%50%
discontinued by Nuño and not picked up by anyone
3%Other
35%
active
0.6%
paywalled
0.0%
discontinued
0.2%
goodbye post at the end of 2023
3%
discontinued by Nuño and picked up by Nathan Young
0.5%
discontinued by Nuño and picked up by Clay Graubard
8%
discontinued by Nuño but continued by ACX.

See yearly housekeeping section on <https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-for-november>.

And this comment: <https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-for-november/comment/11726997>:

In the unfortunate event that you decide to stop writing the newsletter, you might be interested in an emotionally satisfying way of passing the torch. So you could consider creating a Manifold market about the identity of the person who, in your opinion, writes the best forecasting newsletter in 2023. Anyone writing a newsletter could add themselves as an option. Then, in a year's time, you would resolve in favor of whoever you think has most effectively filled the gap. (And in the fortunate event that you were to resume writing it, just resolve N/A, I suppose.)

Unlike the above comment, this question doesn't resolve as a N/A, but rather to a description of the state it is in if I continue writting it.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ83
2Ṁ75
3Ṁ45
4Ṁ24
5Ṁ6

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy