Will a new war start in a post-Soviet country by 2024?
62
610
1K
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

New = outside current Ukraine War. War = >1000 annual battle deaths.

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predicted NO

Do civil wars count? I.e if a country descended into inner turmoil and 1000 lives were lost, would the question resolve as a yes?

@rom Yes

bought Ṁ30 of YES

Armenia-Azerbaijan are currently under ceasefire but at one point early this year it was full blown war.

@BTE That was before the market was created so was not a 'new' war.

predicted YES

@Nostradamnedus In the resolution criteria it says New=Outside Ukraine, but I hear you, it’s a long-standing conflict. What if the conflict is between Ukraine and Transnistria or Belarus?

@BTE Actually, I don't Armenia-Azerbaijan reached 1000 battle deaths since the question was asked, otherwise would count. Same for any other conflict outside Ukraine (so Belarus or Transnistria joining the war would not count as a new one.) I did edit the description to specific "Ukraine War" instead of "Ukraine", in case there is peace and then a new war involving Ukraine starts.