Will Rishi Sunak face a Conservative Vote of No Confidence before the next general election?
Jul 4

This market resolves YES if 15% of Conservative MPs submit letters of no confidence to the 1922 committee before polling day for the next UK General Election following 2019 and a Vote of No Confidence is triggered.

This market will not resolve YES if a parliamentary vote of no confidence is submitted by an opposition party.

Resolves NO on polling day of the next GE if not resolved before.

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The West Midlands result is a blow for the Conservatives. So what does it mean for the prime minister?

I’ve just asked a source close to Tory rebels. Their answer: "We’re still in the pub."

The context: they appear to have decided yesterday that despite the results, they weren’t going to try to bring down the PM. Instead, they went to the pub.

I suppose it is a Bank Holiday weekend.

BBC Liveblog

Looks like the rebels are fairly apathetic now.

bought Ṁ2 YES

Lol if Andy Street loses the game is back on

opened a Ṁ3 YES at 18% order

@IsarBhattacharjee do you think he'll survive the vote if there is one? You might be interested in this market: https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-rishi-sunak-be-replaced-as-lea?r=Rmlvbg

bought Ṁ5 YES

local elections haven't exactly gone well for the tories

I don’t really see why the odds of this have gone down so much.

The tories have had a minor poll uptick in the last few weeks and the rebellious tories have gone quiet but the biggest catalysts for further rebellion (Local Elections and a further Reform surge) remain on the table.

The fundamental weaknesses of Sunak have not changed.

bought Ṁ3 YES

@Jony I agree and hold a yes position but there's also a natural time decay on this market

They won't change leader post September given proximity to the election which means we really only have a window of a few months

To quote the Rt Hon Steve Fleming MP — "I'm not fucking worried, mate!"

Hope we can all agree the funniest outcome would be NO because he resigns before they even get the chance to vote him out...

@Kurgan lol this rumour of a June/ July election seems hilariously desperate - means they except a horrible set of local results. Will be voting to do my bit hahaha

Interesting moves in this today

bought Ṁ70 YES

Simon Clarke thinks we're only a few letters away!

@IsarBhattacharjee Simon Clarke is one of only two people who’ve publicly stated they’ve a letter in and so it’s not a surprise that he thinks it’s imminent. I suspect we’re not anywhere near as close, I’m not expecting any movement until the May by-elections come in. But the way things are going I’m not seeing Sunak making it all the way to October without some kind of challenge.

@Noit totally agree may elections are the obvious catalyst

Related short-fuse market closing this weekend.

Take this with a huge grain of salt (it is GB news after all) but it’s certainly something to look at.

bought Ṁ30 NO

@Jony this might be shaping up to be one of my biggest ever manifold losses!

@Fion lol still nowhere near confirmed but yeah never bet against the tory's unsatiable appetite for regicide

As this trends upwards, I’d like to get people’s eyes on this market on how he would do in the result of this resolving YES.

bought Ṁ10 YES

New details of dysfunction and plotting in the Sun today + Sam Coates (sky) confirms its aligned with his conversations with Tory MPs.

With May election off the table, PM has lost a lot of leverage

From the Sky News liveblog:

Meanwhile, Sky's deputy political editor Sam Coates, who has been talking to Tory MPs about the mood within the party, has said the possibility has been discussed by ministers (see post at 9.10am).

He says the cabinet remains supportive of the PM and there's no great appetite to get rid of him at this stage.

But the fact that it's even being talked about as a possibility is indicative of the difficult position the PM currently finds himself in.

We’re not on any knife edges here.

@Noit can move quite quickly. Having ministers openly discuss his exit is a big early warning sign and may local elections will be a key catalyst

Latest from Alex Wickham: https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1768187391238406559?s=20

Strongly believe this market still underprices odds of removing him

@IsarBhattacharjee I’ll believe it’s more likely when names are publicly attached to letters. “Letters in” is not the most important metric, it’s “ministers publicly campaigning for the PM to go”. That number hasn’t changed in months.

@Noit totally agree but I guess the question is not is the probability 50%, the question is whether 25% is too low

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