Will Rishi Sunak win a Conservative Party Confidence Vote?
4
49
Ṁ75Ṁ90
2025
68%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Conditional on the below market, if Sunak faces a Conservative Party Vote of Confidence (NOT a parliamentary vote), will he win and remain leader (YES) or will he be replaced (NO).
Resolves N/A if there is no party VoNC before the next general election, or if a vote is called but does not take place due to e.g. a general election.
https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-rishi-sunak-face-a-conservativ?r=Tm9pdA
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as leader of the Conservative Party before the next UK general election?
26% chance
If Boris Johnson is the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next UK general election, will the Conservative Party win?
33% chance
Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister at the time of the next UK general election?
82% chance
If Rishi Sunak is the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next UK general election, will the Conservative Party win?
11% chance
Who will be the next UK Prime Minister after Rishi Sunak?
Will the Tories win the next general election?
9% chance
Will Rishi Sunak hold the UK Prime Minister's office for at least two years?
27% chance
Will Rishi Sunak face a Conservative Vote of No Confidence before the next general election?
34% chance
[Metaculus] Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?
92% chance
Will Conservative MPs move against Rishi Sunak after the local elections?
20% chance