Will Rishi Sunak win a Conservative Party Confidence Vote? | Manifold

Will Rishi Sunak win a Conservative Party Confidence Vote?

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resolved Jul 21

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Conditional on the below market, if Sunak faces a Conservative Party Vote of Confidence (NOT a parliamentary vote), will he win and remain leader (YES) or will he be replaced (NO).

Resolves N/A if there is no party VoNC before the next general election, or if a vote is called but does not take place due to e.g. a general election.

https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-rishi-sunak-face-a-conservativ?r=Tm9pdA

Will Rishi Sunak face a Conservative Vote of No Confidence before the next general election?

50% chance. This market resolves YES if 15% of Conservative MPs submit letters of no confidence to the 1922 committee before polling day for the next UK General Election following 2019 and a Vote of No Confidence is triggered. This market will not resolve YES if a parliamentary vote of no confidence is submitted by an opposition party. Resolves NO on polling day of the next GE if not resolved before.

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