Conditional on the below market, if Sunak faces a Conservative Party Vote of Confidence (NOT a parliamentary vote), will he win and remain leader (YES) or will he be replaced (NO). 

Resolves N/A if there is no party VoNC before the next general election, or if a vote is called but does not take place due to e.g. a general election. 

https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-rishi-sunak-face-a-conservativ?r=Tm9pdA

50% chance. This market resolves YES if 15% of Conservative MPs submit letters of no confidence to the 1922 committee before polling day for the next UK General Election following 2019 and a Vote of No Confidence is triggered. 

This market will not resolve YES if a parliamentary vote of no confidence is submitted by an opposition party. 

Resolves NO on polling day of the next GE if not resolved before. 