What will be true of the 2025 UK.gov Autumn Budget?
29
4.8kṀ5122
Nov 26
91%
Any Income Tax band frozen
88%
Removal of two-child benefit cap
85%
Any tax increase on gambling
83%
Increase in minimum wage
82%
Any Mansion tax
69%
Any increase in dividend tax
68%
Any change to cash ISAs
64%
Any change to stamp duty
64%
Reduction in cash ISA limit
62%
Extension of scope of VAT
61%
Increase in Council Tax
56%
Any change to Inheritance Tax (IHT)
52%
Any change to higher rate tax relief on pension contributions
52%
Any change to pension tax free lump sum allowance
43%
Dividend tax rates aligned with income
42%
Any increase to Corporation Tax
39%
Increase in Fuel Duty
39%
Increase in Income Tax (any band)
33%
Any change to personal allowance
32%
Income tax increase AND matching decrease in National Insurance

Resolves according to the budget speech itself, items will not resolve based on leaks or on information released post-budget, except in the case of a question which is difficult to resolve based on the speech which is clarified in supplementary announcements.

“Any increase in…” questions will resolve on any change that directly increases a tax rate, or changes to e.g. bands or eligibility. May resolve 50% if a change results in some taxpayers paying more and some paying less.

  • Update 2025-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The "Increase in VAT rate" option refers specifically to changes in the VAT rate itself, not to extending the scope of VAT to previously exempt goods.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
🤖

Meowdy! Looks like 2025 UK Autumn Budget could pounce on several tax hikes, especially wealth-related ones. I’ll dig deeper into recent news and revisit this market tonight for finer picks :3

@adssx https://uk.news.yahoo.com/reeves-set-increase-dividend-tax-200237511.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

"It comes as part of a drive by Labour to ensure that income from wealth is taxed more equally to earnings made from work."

@Noit https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-03/reeves-targets-uk-rich-with-exit-and-mansion-taxes-among-options

"Several newspapers have reported that Reeves is looking at reforming council tax to raise more revenue from Britain’s more expensive properties. That has led to suggestions that she is effectively considering a tax on mansions, a policy that has been popular with Labour members of parliament in the past."

@creator it's been delayed so you may want to extend the deadline

bought Ṁ5 NO

@Noit could easily see this going either way. On the one hand, they need revenue from somewhere and it's a tax they've not promised not to raise, but on the other hand it doesn't raise much and it tends to upset people

@Noit can I clarify: would extending the scope of VAT resolve this YES? E.g. if some good that currently has 0% VAT was given the standard 20%, is that an "increase in VAT"? Or is it only if the standard rate is increased from 20%?

@Fion I was thinking of VAT rate and have amended to distinguish from the option you’ve added

bought Ṁ15 NO

Might improve clarity to mention it's the UK budget in the title in addition to just in the tags, since the site is mostly non-brits

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy