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Will the UK decrease its aid spending commitment before the next election?
26% chance
Will the UK increase the personal income tax rate before 2026?
54% chance
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60% chance
Will the UK Government have spent more than £50 Bn (inflation-adjusted from sep 22) capping electricity bills by the next election?
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Will Annual UK Debt Interest Payments Exceed 20% of Government Budget Revenue by 2028?
54% chance
In the UK, will the tax burden on any decile increase by more than 1pp against what was expected, before the next election?
59% chance
What will happen to the UK before 2050?
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47% chance
Will Net Migration to the UK be higher in 2024 than in 2023?
29% chance
Will the UK an have average of more than 500,000 net migrants per year between Sep 2022 and the next election?
81% chance