If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 5 years later?
Plus
7
Ṁ2832040
23%
<0.5x FLOP/s per dollar
20%
0.5-1x FLOP/s per dollar
13%
1-2x FLOP/s per dollar
17%
2-4x FLOP/s per dollar
27%
>4x FLOP/s per dollar
IE what wil the ratio of top-ML GPU FLOP/s per dollar 5 years after invasion be to top-ML GPU FLOP/s per dollar before invasion.
I'll use the resolution criteria of this Metaculus question to operationalize invasion:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/?sub-question=10880f
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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