
Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan
21
1kṀ3752030
33%
chance
1H
6H
1D
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1M
ALL
(destroyed as deterrence counts)
Resolves yes if I think chip fabs were destroyed with >80% confidence and resolves no if I think chip fabs weren't destroyed with >90% confidence, otherwise resolves ambiguously.
Resolves on Jan 1st 2030 or at any point I think substantial quantities of chip fabs were destroyed with >90% confidence.
I will determine 'substantial' subjectively, but intend it to mean something like "chip production is slowed by >40% for multiple years"
Edit: "global chip production is slowed by >40% for multiple years"
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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