Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan
21
1kṀ375
2030
33%
chance

(destroyed as deterrence counts)

Resolves yes if I think chip fabs were destroyed with >80% confidence and resolves no if I think chip fabs weren't destroyed with >90% confidence, otherwise resolves ambiguously.

Resolves on Jan 1st 2030 or at any point I think substantial quantities of chip fabs were destroyed with >90% confidence.

I will determine 'substantial' subjectively, but intend it to mean something like "chip production is slowed by >40% for multiple years"

Edit: "global chip production is slowed by >40% for multiple years"

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