Will Far-UVC Become a Partisan Issue in the US by 2027?
7
1kαΉ€1149
2026
21%
chance

(Willing to hear alternative suggestions) But as of now I will plan to resolve this to Manifold poll at the beginning of 2027.

Background: I have been curious about Far-UVC for some years and recently read a new Substack post about it here.

The challenges listed in this paragraph (attached below), among others, made me think that there's a possibility this could emerge as a partisan issue in the USA. Even public health innovations like mRNA vaccines, as one example, with more clear and well-defined paths to production and proliferation became highly partisan in the USA by the end of 2021.

However, in order for the issue to really be "partisan" in any real sense requires that Far-UVC become a more widely known topic to begin with. If Far-UVC is still relatively undertested and implemented, perhaps this will mean little.

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I've been super excited about Far-UVC since some time during the pandemic when someone on Sam Harris talked about it. Yet, crickets. I assumed it was too hard to get. But then years ago I saw a Far-UVC wand at Bed Bath & Beyond for a good price. Still, crickets. Without another pandemic I don't see the topic getting much uptake, especially with all these in-your-face topics popping up and taking all media attention almost hourly.

@AlexanderTheGreater Yes, it's an extremely promising technology. It seems like a mix of factors have led to the aforementioned crickets. Un-patentable (at least at the base level), unclear testing criteria, among other smaller issues.

That alone may keep it from becoming a partisan issue, ignoring of course just the simple fact that not everything becomes one, even though it may feel like it these days.

@No_uh I think it also suffers from the issue that the cost would be carried by people providing public or semi-public spaces. That's also why we hardly saw any improvements to ventilation in restaurants, schools or work places during pandemic even though this would have been the biggest improvement.

That said, I dream of the world where all public transit has Far-UVC light that comes on periodically which also would lead to a quick "YES" on this market.

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