How will James Bond injure people in the next James Bond movie?
Basic
64
7.0k
2028
93%
[With five or more methods]
92%
With their bare hands
87%
With a weapon that the victim brought to the fight.
86%
With a gadget or other ingenious device from Q
80%
With a hand gun
74%
In the dark
70%
With a long arm (a firearm larger than a pistol).
66%
With a Walther PP or PPK handgun
56%
Slap
56%
By causing a structural collapse under them.

Injure instead of kill to make it a bit more exciting. Plus, who even "dies" in a hollywood film?

Questions will only resovle after the official movie is out (no resolutions based off the trailers). I will turn off the ability to add more answers when the movie releases, but leave betting open. I will try to see the movie within the first 1-2 days it is released to resolve quickly.

"James Bond" means the protagonist of the film. If we get a new bond/007 agent who goes by another name, we will use them for the sake of this market.

Refers to the next official Bond movie after No Time to Die (2021), I'll change the title once we know what it is.

I didn't want to clutter @HenriThunberg 's much nicer /HenriThunberg/what-will-be-the-true-of-the-next-j

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This shouldn't count unless the piece is Liszt's Hungarian Rhapsody no. 2 and there's a mouse living inside the piano.

@ZacharyParker also, what's next, villains arguing because their missile is too round and should be pointier?

@BrunoParga I was thinking "Believe Me, If All Those Endearing Young Charms" for the song

@ZacharyParker I don't know that one, but Liszt's piece was used on both eerily similar 1946 cartoons, Tom and Jerry's "The Cat Concerto" and Bugs Bunny's "Rhapsody Rabbit".

RIP, Tunnel Painted On a Wall. You were the option we deserved, not the one we needed right now. So we N/A'd you. Because you can take it.

In the dark

Meaning: sunlight is not present either due to night time or blocked by walls, inside a cave or something like that; AND artificial lighting that would normally be expected to be present is absent for any reason (turned off, broken, covered, disabled...)

@BrunoParga Thanks for adding the extra clarification text!

@Nikos well, I wouldn't want to leave people in the dark, would I?

Just did some tidying up. I "merged" electricity with electrocution and removed some very specific unlikely to happen events.

I'll try to address those more quickly next time so not as many people will have traded on them.

With a named MMA submission (e.g., rear-naked choke, arm bar, kimura lock, etc.)

Uh, I might need some help resolving this answer...

Would a taser count for this?

@AaronBreckenridge I feel like a taser would count for that.

This is too vague, I'm going to N/A it.

This is shaping up as a decent list of creative writing ideas.

@DanPowell Haha remind me to create Manifold Bond Bingo cards that we can all print and bring to the premiere for the three markets 😅

@HenriThunberg if we somehow get timestamps for the moment in the movie when each question resolves YES, we can actually run a bingo with an actual winner, by having the bingo cards be generated deterministically based on our usernames.

Yes, I'm ridiculously overthinking this. I think it'd be fun.

With a Walther PP or PPK handgun

Is it worth having a “handgun other than a Walther” option?

@DanPowell not really, it's implied by the two listed options already no?

@HenriThunberg There’s no way to bet that he won’t use a firearm other than a Walther; you could bet yes on firearm and no on Walther to bet that he would use a non-Walther firearm but half of that is a chump bet.

@DanPowell I think I get what Henri is saying by being able to infer it from the existing options, but I'm also fine having that as an explicit option. As long as it doesn't get too cluttered with gun options (but realistically gun options are highly relevant) :)

@DanPowell You just bet them towards each other, right? Ideally by buying the same number of shares in each one. And if you want, bet the pair towards the probability you think it should have.

@EvanDaniel So if I think that the odds of using a Walther and the odds of him using any firearm match the current odds, there’s no way to bet on the non-Walther firearm question. I think “with a non-a Walther firearm” would settle much higher than the difference between the two because of a substantial amount of cases where both are used.

@DanPowell I interpret the current prices as:

10% chance of no firearm
60% of Walther
30% chance of other and not Walther

And the question is how to bet on "Walther + other" vs "Only Walther"? I had thought you wanted to bet the 30% figure above up or down. I agree, there's no way to bet on that pair at the moment.

Yeah, a “both walther and non-walther” category would enable betting as well as a “non-walther”.

It’s not worth M25 to me to add it, if that tells you anything about how invested I am.

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