If there are more than 49 members, the question will be resolved as 49 (this is a limitation of the numeric question on Manifold).
1,000
3.00Almost guaranteed that you could resolve to 0 as of evening of 7 November. There are 9 seats to be declared.
Mathematically impossible for ON candidate to win (even with perfect preference flows, couldn't make it to the top 2) in Bundaberg, Hinchinbrook, Maryborough, Macalister, Morayfield, Pumicestone, Redlands
In Bundamba, the ON candidate would need perfect flows from candidates with lower primary votes + 50% preferences from the Greens primary voters -- extremely implausible
Only Mulgrave is not completely out of the question, but still very implausible, ON candidate in fourth with 8.71% behind KAP 16.17%, ALP 24.21%, and LNP 27.44%. Would require very implausible preference flows (like 50%+ from all the lower candidates)