How many One Nation members will be in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland on 1 December 2024?
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resolved Dec 1
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If there are more than 49 members, the question will be resolved as 49 (this is a limitation of the numeric question on Manifold).

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Almost guaranteed that you could resolve to 0 as of evening of 7 November. There are 9 seats to be declared.

  • Mathematically impossible for ON candidate to win (even with perfect preference flows, couldn't make it to the top 2) in Bundaberg, Hinchinbrook, Maryborough, Macalister, Morayfield, Pumicestone, Redlands

  • In Bundamba, the ON candidate would need perfect flows from candidates with lower primary votes + 50% preferences from the Greens primary voters -- extremely implausible

  • Only Mulgrave is not completely out of the question, but still very implausible, ON candidate in fourth with 8.71% behind KAP 16.17%, ALP 24.21%, and LNP 27.44%. Would require very implausible preference flows (like 50%+ from all the lower candidates)

...although, reading the title again, I would understand waiting until 1 December to resolve this. No PHON members have been elected, but an elected MP from another party could leave that party and join One Nation between now and 1 December. It won't happen, but it could

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