Will the Liberal National Party of Queensland split by the end of 2027?

100Ṁ81

2027

23%

chance

ALL

Background

In 2008, the Queensland divisions of the Liberal Party of Australia and the National Party of Australia merged to create the Liberal National Party of Queensland. Officially, the Liberal National Party of Queensland is a division of the Liberal Party of Australia that is affiliated with the National Party of Australia. In 2025, the National Party of Australia announced that it was not ready to renew its longstanding federal coalition agreement with the Liberal Party of Australia.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if any three of the following events occur by the end of 2027 and it is reasonable to consider them indicative of a ‘split’ in the Liberal National Party of Queensland (’the party’):

The party is dissolved
The party is deregistered by the Electoral Commission of Queensland
The party is deregistered by the Australian Electoral Commission
The party’s Constitution is altered to remove any affiliation with the National Party of Australia
The party’s Constitution is altered to remove any affiliation with the Liberal Party of Australia
At least a quarter of the party’s representatives in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland leave the party
Several of the party’s representatives in federal parliament leave the party
There is significant media coverage suggesting that the party has formally split into two or more separate parties
The Federal Constitution of the Liberal Party of Australia is altered to remove any reference to the ‘Liberal National Party of Queensland’
The Federal Constitution of the National Party of Australia is altered to remove any reference to the ‘Liberal National Party of Queensland’

This market will otherwise resolve NO.

Resolution principles

It will be presumed that an event has not occurred unless it is proven to have occurred.
In the event that the resolution of the market is subjective or contentious, traders will be properly consulted.

Interpretation principles

The resolution criteria will be interpreted in accordance with their apparent meaning, without regard to any intention of the market creator that is not evident in the text.
No clause, sentence or word in the resolution criteria will be considered superfluous, void or insignificant if by any other interpretation they may all be made useful and pertinent.
The market creator may conduct a non-binding poll to settle any ambiguity in the resolution criteria or any dispute over the interpretation of them. In determining the persuasiveness of the poll result, the market creator must consider the number of participants, the decisiveness of the result, the vested interests of the participants and the strength of the arguments presented.