Who will be the next big Sam on Manifold?
Who will be the next big Sam on Manifold?
8
675Ṁ4382027
30%
No one by close date
21%
12%
Samuel Alito
10%
Sam Harris
7%
Sam Jacobs (TIME)
6%
Sam Reich
4%
Samuel Lim (Binance)
4%
Sam Bowman (NYU/Anthropic)
2%
Sam Trabucco
2%
Samuel L. Jackson
2%
Sam Elliott
Resolves to any public person whose first name is Sam, Samuel or Sammy and who is the main subject of at least one market with strictly more than 999 unique traders by close date. Resolves to whoever meets the condition first.
Will not resolve to Sam Altman or Sam Bankman-Fried. Markets made before this one do not count.
A public person is anyone who meets at least one of the following conditions:
has an active, stable Wikipedia page
has at least 100,000 followers on one of several social media websites (X, Instagram, Threads, LinkedIn)
holds or has held a public office
has a h-index of at least 30
has won a Nobel Prize
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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