Who will win the 2023 Tour de France (men’s GC)?
44
1.1K
resolved Jul 23
0.1%
Tadej Pogačar
0.0%
Primož Roglič
99.8%
Jonas Vingegaard
0.0%
Wout van Aert
0.0%
Richard Carapaz
0.0%
Enric Mas
0.0%
Nairo Quintana
0.0%
Julian Alaphilippe
0.0%
Romain Bardet
0.0%
Thibaut Pinot
0.0%
Geraint Thomas
0.0%
Rigoberto Urán
0.0%
David Gaudu
0.0%
Jai Hindley
0.0%
Sepp Kuss
0.0%
Remco Evenepoel
0.0%
Egan Bernal
0.0%
Simon Yates
0.0%
Mikel Landa
0.0%
Carlos Rodriguez

This question is about the general classification (GC), which determines who wears the yellow jersey.


This market, like all other markets in the Tour de France group, counts toward the 2023 TDF tournament. See here for prizes. Good luck!

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Anyone who was interested in the Tour de France might also enjoy playing markets for the Vuelta a Espana, which starts in a bit over a week.

There is a Category here and it is starting to get a number of fresh markets!

https://manifold.markets/group/vuelta-a-espana

Thanks everyone for participating in the tournament. The prize winners are:

@NamesAreHard 1st place: M400

@egroj 2nd place: M200

@Peilbeo 3rd place: M100

@AlexbGoode 4th place: M50

@SirCryptomind 5th place: M25

Congratulations! I’ll send each of you a managram for your prize.

@NicoDelon Thank you for organizing this and all the markets you, @egroj, @PelotonEliza, and everyone else created! I had lots of fun watching the Tour and betting on them, that made the whole experience so much better.

The season is not over, San Sebastian is next week Ayuso vs Remco good preview for La Vuelta

One last market to squeeze in:

If you liked this one....

Great tour this year. Everything decided, except for tomorrow's stage:

Okay, so what's Tadej's move? Does he pull a 2018 Giro Froomey and attack on one of the smaller climbs with 80K to go tomorrow? I sure hope so.

@JCE By tomorrow I mean Saturday.

sold Ṁ4 of Tadej Pogačar

@JCE Also love that Remco is still 3rd most likely to win.

@JCE God please yes.

@NicoDelon I would resolve yes. I don't know the number of times someone has made up a deficit of that much. This article pegs says maybe 1958 with an 8 minute deficit made up? https://www.bicycling.com/tour-de-france/g34089037/tour-de-france-biggest-comebacks/ Chris Froome's attack in 2018 is described as one of the most sensational days in the modern era of the Giro and that was less than 4 minutes. Also I'm pretty sure the manifold markets for GC/JV were all in 98% territory before Stage 20. If you wanted to get really specific you could find a way to calculate the avg gaps between Top 5 finishers on any given stage - making up a 7 minute deficit probably happens much less than 1% of the time. My only inclination towards no is that I do think the resolution criteria you specified is a little tricky - I would say 7 minutes is unlikely but humanly feasible, but I don't consider that mutually exclusive with an off the charts effort. It would be both.

@JCE Thanks. The ‘humanly possible’ has to be interpreted in the context at hand, and I think given Vingegaard’s form, not even Pogačar could bridge such a gap. It is technically humanly feasible but definitely off the charts and, for all intents and purposes, Pogačar would have had to do something nearly superhuman to win.

Remember when we thought Hindley could win? Fun times.

Great weekend coming up, Grand Colombier tomorrow:

@egroj the next 4 stages will be decisive for GC, here are individual markets for them

Tomorrow is a flat stage, here are the markets for all the sprinters: https://manifold.markets/post/markets-for-sprinters

What, everyone suddenly has faith in Tadej again?

sold Ṁ1 of Jai Hindley

@JakeEatonc5e2 Never lost faith

@NicoDelon Very good tour so far.