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Anyone who was interested in the Tour de France might also enjoy playing markets for the Vuelta a Espana, which starts in a bit over a week.

There is a Category here and it is starting to get a number of fresh markets!

https://manifold.markets/group/vuelta-a-espana

Vuelta a Espana

Manifold public category with 3 followers

Thanks everyone for participating in the tournament. The prize winners are:

@NamesAreHard 1st place: M400

@egroj 2nd place: M200

@Peilbeo 3rd place: M100

@AlexbGoode 4th place: M50

@SirCryptomind 5th place: M25

Congratulations! I’ll send each of you a managram for your prize.

@NicoDelon

@NicoDelon Thank you for organizing this and all the markets you, @egroj, @PelotonEliza, and everyone else created! I had lots of fun watching the Tour and betting on them, that made the whole experience so much better.

The season is not over, San Sebastian is next week Ayuso vs Remco good preview for La Vuelta

I made a group for the Tour de France Femmes here:

https://manifold.markets/group/tour-de-france-femmes

Tour de France Femmes

Manifold public group with 1 members

One last market to squeeze in:

If you liked this one....

Great tour this year. Everything decided, except for tomorrow's stage:

Okay, so what's Tadej's move? Does he pull a 2018 Giro Froomey and attack on one of the smaller climbs with 80K to go tomorrow? I sure hope so.

@JCE By tomorrow I mean Saturday.

@JCE Also love that Remco is still 3rd most likely to win.

@JCE God please yes.

@JCE Thoughts? https://manifold.markets/NicoDelon/will-the-gc-winner-be-practically-g?r=Tmljb0RlbG9u

Will the GC winner be practically guaranteed before the penultimate stage at 2023 TDF?

98.1% chance. Resolves YES if, before the start of penultimate stage, the leader of the general classification (yellow jersey) of the 2023 Tour de France is all but certain to win the Tour barring accident or disqualification, i.e. it would normally take superhuman, off-the-charts efforts for the se…

@NicoDelon I would resolve yes. I don't know the number of times someone has made up a deficit of that much. This article pegs says maybe 1958 with an 8 minute deficit made up? https://www.bicycling.com/tour-de-france/g34089037/tour-de-france-biggest-comebacks/ Chris Froome's attack in 2018 is described as one of the most sensational days in the modern era of the Giro and that was less than 4 minutes. Also I'm pretty sure the manifold markets for GC/JV were all in 98% territory before Stage 20. If you wanted to get really specific you could find a way to calculate the avg gaps between Top 5 finishers on any given stage - making up a 7 minute deficit probably happens much less than 1% of the time. My only inclination towards no is that I do think the resolution criteria you specified is a little tricky - I would say 7 minutes is unlikely but humanly feasible, but I don't consider that mutually exclusive with an off the charts effort. It would be both.

The Biggest and Craziest Comebacks in Tour de France History

Scandal, insane attacks, and the advent of aero technology all played a role in these come-from-behind wins.

@JCE Thanks. The ‘humanly possible’ has to be interpreted in the context at hand, and I think given Vingegaard’s form, not even Pogačar could bridge such a gap. It is technically humanly feasible but definitely off the charts and, for all intents and purposes, Pogačar would have had to do something nearly superhuman to win.

https://manifold.markets/NicoDelon/who-of-pogacar-or-vingegaard-will-h?r=Tmljb0RlbG9u

Remember when we thought Hindley could win? Fun times.

Great weekend coming up, Grand Colombier tomorrow:

@egroj the next 4 stages will be decisive for GC, here are individual markets for them

Tomorrow is a flat stage, here are the markets for all the sprinters: https://manifold.markets/post/markets-for-sprinters

What, everyone suddenly has faith in Tadej again?

@JakeEatonc5e2 Never lost faith

@NicoDelon Very good tour so far.