Resolves YES if, before the start of penultimate stage, the leader of the general classification (yellow jersey) of the 2023 Tour de France is all but certain to win the Tour barring accident or disqualification, i.e. it would normally take superhuman, off-the-charts efforts for the second place to overtake him during the penultimate stage.
My assessment of 'all but certain' will be partly subjective, but I will rely on media, blogs, and experts reports to capture the general prediction. An off-the-chart performance is one that most observers would agree is best explained by (physiological or mechanical) doping, i.e. that doesn't make sense in light of previously recorded power analyses of the riders involved.
If it would be unlikely but humanly feasible for second place to bridge the gap during the penultimate stage, this resolves NO. I will wait a couple of days before resolving. I may resolve YES even if an upset takes place (if it reasonably couldn't have made sense to observers before the stage) or NO even if none does (an upset could reasonably have been expected to take place but did not).
Closes before the stage but will not resolve immediately.
This market, like all other markets in the Tour de France group, counts toward the 2023 TDF tournament. See here for prizes. Good luck!
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I won’t resolve until the tour is over, and if things stand, it’s highly likely YES, but I’d be happy to hear arguments to the contrary. Given that there are no NO holders, I’m not expecting a lot of debate, but who knows.
You could give a number of seconds of advantage previous to stage 20 that would resolve the market to YES.
This is the profile of stage 20:
It is a hard stage but not super hard. Even after 3 weeks of racing, I would expect most super-domestiques to make it to bottom of the last climb with the GC contenders (unless someone attacks at the start of Petit Ballon, but unlikely given that the climb softens up and a group could recover by sharing who's in front). So it all comes down to the last climb:
Very hard but not super hard: 7K at 8%, one section at 9% and two sections a little bit over 10% ("not super hard" for professional peloton, I would die 😂 ). If the GC leader doesn't crack, I would say it is superhuman to recover more than 30 seconds on that climb. If the leader cracks perhaps add one minute. Conclusion, I would say GC practically guaranteed with 1:30 or more.
@NicoDelon in that case I won't part take on the market. I'm just bidding M$1 to give you the bonus
@NicoDelon hard market anyway, it all depends on Tadej's recovery, I think if he's at 100% this likely would happen, but if he's at 95% I could be a couple of seconds difference with Jonas until the very last stage.
@Checktaschu True, though would you say Pogacar’s TT performance then was superhuman, off the charts?