Resolves YES if, before the start of penultimate stage, the leader of the general classification (yellow jersey) of the 2023 Tour de France is all but certain to win the Tour barring accident or disqualification, i.e. it would normally take superhuman, off-the-charts efforts for the second place to overtake him during the penultimate stage.

My assessment of 'all but certain' will be partly subjective, but I will rely on media, blogs, and experts reports to capture the general prediction. An off-the-chart performance is one that most observers would agree is best explained by (physiological or mechanical) doping, i.e. that doesn't make sense in light of previously recorded power analyses of the riders involved.

If it would be unlikely but humanly feasible for second place to bridge the gap during the penultimate stage, this resolves NO. I will wait a couple of days before resolving. I may resolve YES even if an upset takes place (if it reasonably couldn't have made sense to observers before the stage) or NO even if none does (an upset could reasonably have been expected to take place but did not).

Closes before the stage but will not resolve immediately.

This market, like all other markets in the Tour de France group, counts toward the 2023 TDF tournament. See here for prizes. Good luck!