Who will win Stage 21 of the 2023 Tour de France?
14
115
765
resolved Jul 23
100%98.9%
Someone else in a bunch (peloton) sprint
0.3%
Jasper Philipsen
0.1%
Dylan Groenewegen
0.0%
Alexander Kristoff
0.7%
Someone else in a breaway

Final day will very likely be a bunch sprint

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bought Ṁ100 of Someone else in a bu... YES

You got to be kidding me. The German commentators screamed that Philipsen was first and I should have just waited a second before placing my bet 🤦‍♂️

bought Ṁ10 of Jasper Philipsen YES

It's pretty clear to me at this point that I have a bigger delay in my stream than others on Manifold 😅

bought Ṁ170 of Someone else in a bu... YES

@meefburger I wasn't even watching the stream, I was watching the website lol

@SirCryptomind smart. I'm a little surprised that's faster

bought Ṁ150 of Someone else in a br... NO

For resolution criteria, if someone jumps at or before 1K of the finish and nobody in the peloton closes the gap, I'll say that is a 'breakaway', after 1K mark I'll say it's a bunch sprint. Maybe I should have done another case for this situation, sorry

@egroj should I use even less than 1K?

@egroj To count as a breakaway they should have a gap of at least 1 second at some point. Maybe 3.

@PelotonEliza (Even if they finish on the same time, if they had a lead of some seconds before it was probably a breakaway)

@PelotonEliza OK, I'll use that criteria. If there is doubt I won't resolve right away to hear the discussion.

bought Ṁ10 of Someone else in a bu... YES

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