Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents are deployed to polling locations, early voting sites, or ballot drop boxes during the 2026 midterm elections in November. Deployment includes uniformed or armed ICE personnel stationed at, patrolling, or conducting operations within the immediate vicinity of voting locations with the apparent intent to monitor voters or conduct immigration enforcement.

This market resolves NO if the 2026 midterm elections occur without ICE deployment to polling locations as defined above.

Resolution will be determined by reporting from major news outlets and official statements from state election officials and the Department of Homeland Security.

Background

The Trump administration's deployment of ICE agents to airports has renewed discussion about the possibility of ICE going to the polls in November, with Steve Bannon urging President Trump to treat the airport deployment as a dress rehearsal for the 2026 midterms. A February 2026 poll found that 64% of voters think Trump will attempt to deploy immigration enforcement agents to prevent participation in the 2026 midterms, including 81% of Democrats, 66% of Independents, and 45% of Republicans.

In February 2026, a Department of Homeland Security official told state election officials that ICE agents would not be stationed at polling places for the 2026 elections, marking the Trump administration's clearest declaration yet that ICE won't be used to interfere with the midterms. However, some Trump officials have avoided closing the door completely, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stating she cannot guarantee that an ICE agent won't be around a polling location in November.

Considerations

Federal law bars armed "troops or armed men" from being deployed near a polling location, unless to repel "armed enemies of the United States." Federal immigration agents could attempt to intercept people outside the immediate polling area, which could create a "chilling effect" that suppresses voter turnout and potentially influence House control. In response to administration hedging, at least eight states have introduced or passed legislation to limit federal agents' access to the polls.

This description was generated by AI.