Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026?
Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026?
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2027
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The list consists of 60 people from an appendix in his book, as reported here: https://rollcall.com/2024/12/09/trumps-pick-to-lead-fbi-identified-government-gangsters/

This question will resolve YES if and only if at least five of those 60 people are incarcerated for any reason as of December 31, 2026 (a little more than two years from the inception of the question).

  • Update 2024-14-12 (PST): - Temporary jailing counts towards the resolution criteria - individuals only need to be physically incarcerated on December 31, 2026, regardless of conviction status (AI summary of creator comment)

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3mo

@traders A related marke

t can be found here:

3mo

Good question. Added it to the dashboard US Democracy:

https://manifold.markets/news/us-democracy

Consider adding US Democracy as a topic 🙂

3mo

@Siebe thanks, done

3mo

Does temporary jailing count, or do they need to be convicted?

3mo

@Siebe Temporary jailing counts. This is a point-in-time criterion: are they behind bars on the date specified.

3mo

@NicholasWeininger So if they're in jail before then and then released (or out on bail?)

3mo

@FergusArgyll If people on the list have been jailed but are released (on bail or otherwise) on 12/31/2026, but fewer than five are actually in jail on that date, it resolves NO. It's a point in time snapshot. It could be useful to have a separate question for "will >= 5 of them have spent at least one day in jail between now and 12/31/2026" but this question is narrower.

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