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MANIFOLD
Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?
14
Ṁ6kṀ2.8k
Jan 1
51%
Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
49%
Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm
48%
Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein
47%
Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump
46%
Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama
56%
Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella
56%
John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama
57%
Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump
58%
Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States
41%
Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding
41%
Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden
41%
Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
41%
Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden
40%
Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump
40%
James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter
40%
Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States
40%
Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump
40%
Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division
40%
Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations
40%
Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

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Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.

Who listed in Appendix B of the book "Government Gangsters: The Deep State, the Truth, and the Battle for Our Democracy" by proposed FBI Director Kash Patel will be investigated within the first two years of the Trump administration?

This will resolve to "Yes" if the justice department, court fillings, the Trump administration, the named individual, or three credible news outlets confirm that the individual is the target or subject of a criminal investigation by the federal government of the United States. For the purposes of this market, Kash Patel is referenced only as the author of the list. His future involvement or lack thereof with the FBI, the federal government, or any other government in any way is irrelevant.

For purposes of these rules, a “criminal investigation” means a formal inquiry undertaken under the law enforcement or prosecutorial authority of the federal government of the United States, conducted for the purpose of determining whether an individual has committed a violation of federal criminal law or an inquiry that will, inherently, result in a determination of whether an individual has violated federal criminal laws. Inquiries that can not result in criminal prosecution will not be counted for this market.

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@AaronSimansky @traders An overwhelming consensus of credible media outlets have reported that Robert Muller has died. Those reports have been acknowledged is true by the White House. As the United States does not prosecute people after they have died, this market will resolve NO.

Please reply to this comment within the next 24 hours if you think this should be resolved differently

@traders I would like to add the following clarification for what qualifies as a criminal investigation. Please reply to this post with any feedback or criticism. If none is received, this will be added to the rules in 24 hours.

For purposes of these rules, a “criminal investigation” means a formal inquiry undertaken by a federal law enforcement or prosecutorial authority of the United States government, conducted for the purpose of determining whether an individual has committed a violation of federal criminal law.

filled a Ṁ10 YES at 74% order

Kash Patel picking Dan Bongino as his deputy FBI director bumps literally everything here up, i think.