Will at least 10 UK riot related prosecutions be overturned or have their sentences shortened in the next 2 years?
5
1kṀ1354
2026
38%
chance
14

  • Update 2025-12-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market title says "next 2 years" but the close date was accidentally set to 1 year. The creator is leaning towards respecting the original close date (2025-12-31) rather than extending it to match the 2-year timeframe in the title.

  • Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has decided to extend the market close date to match the 2-year timeframe stated in the title, rather than keeping the originally set 1-year close date (2025-12-31). The market will now close approximately 2 years from creation, unless traders object before the change is implemented.

  • Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market close date has been updated to August 2026 to align with the 2-year timeframe stated in the title (rather than the originally set date of December 2025).

Law & Order
Crime
UK politics
Legal Decisions
UK Conservative Party
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will there be two-tier sentencing guidelines in effect in the UK at the end of 2025?
3% chance
Will the UK (excluding Northern Ireland) experience major riots in 2025, similar to 2024? (V2)
4% chance
Will at least one of the pardoned January 6 rioters be involved in a domestic terrorism plot or incident before 2029?
70% chance
Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026?
17% chance
Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?
3% chance
Will at least one of Merrick Garland or Jack Smith be charged with a federal crime by 2026?
26% chance
Will anyone be prosecuted relating to the Grenfell Tower disaster before 01/01/2027?
31% chance
If the PM after the next UK election is Reform, how many gun deaths in England and Wales over the subsequent 5 years?
333
Sort by:

I have changed the closing date of the market to reflect the title, particularly want @JonathanNankivell to know this as he just made a large order

@LukeShadwell Sticking with the question in the title/description is generally the way to go. So yeah, updating the close date is fine with me. But two years would get us to August 2026, no?

@JonathanNankivell Good point, just changed to August 2026.

seems like i accidentally created this for only 1 year, despite the title saying 'next 2 years'. what do you think i should do about this @traders @mods. rough. someone just bid 750 mana on this market too. im leaning towards uh, maybe just respecting the original close date?

@LukeShadwell I'd stick to the title! Might as well, it won't mess with too much investment

@Stralor Thanks. Will likely do that once I’m on my computer (can’t figure out how to do it on mobile) as long as there are no objections from traders before then

sold Ṁ483 NO

@LukeShadwell Seconding Pat's comment

People are also trading

Will there be two-tier sentencing guidelines in effect in the UK at the end of 2025?
3% chance
Will the UK (excluding Northern Ireland) experience major riots in 2025, similar to 2024? (V2)
4% chance
Will at least one of the pardoned January 6 rioters be involved in a domestic terrorism plot or incident before 2029?
70% chance
Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026?
17% chance
Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?
3% chance
Will at least one of Merrick Garland or Jack Smith be charged with a federal crime by 2026?
26% chance
Will anyone be prosecuted relating to the Grenfell Tower disaster before 01/01/2027?
31% chance
If the PM after the next UK election is Reform, how many gun deaths in England and Wales over the subsequent 5 years?
333
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy