How many Americans will die due to political violence in 2024?

Question

Reason magazine ran an article recently predicting that 2024 will see notable political violence in the US. (https://reason.com/2023/12/26/prediction-2024-will-see-deadly-political-violence-in-the-streets/) I think Matt is probably wrong about this, depending on how he defines "deadly." It inspired me to make this market (along with another one).

I've attempted to break up these buckets according to recent past years of political protest/riot deaths in the US. This turns out to be fairly hard to determine quickly, but so far as I can tell the US has averaged about 8 yearly. 2020 had 19 total, which seems like a good benchmark for "unusually bad."

So, some disclaimer and definition stuff: This is only counting deaths, here, and strictly from political events (whether politically motivated riots, "mostly peaceful" protests, or official campaigning events like a stump speech near the Capitol...). I obviously can't account for every permutation of "politics" so be warned only that I'll interpret it fairly broadly, but to be political the motivations have to have some sort of nexus with state action. I don't plan to bet on this market, but I do expect to bet on the connected market.

I will resolve this question a few days post-closing (to give myself time to count up the totals if there's dispute) or as soon as the tally unquestionably enters the top bucket.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 3-8, followed by 9-14 and 20-30 are most likely. See the market for live updates (32 traders, as of Mar 27, 2025).