Texas' next legislative session begins Jan 10, 2023. Resolves YES if an anti-transgender bill is filed in Texas before Jan 1, 2025, resolves NO otherwise. Note that bills passed in special sessions are also included in this question, as long as they are filed before Jan 1, 2025.
For this question, 'anti-transgender bills' include only school policy bills, medical care bans, and sports bans. See https://freedomforallamericans.org/legislative-tracker/anti-transgender-legislation/ and https://www.equalitytexas.org/legislative-bill-tracker/ for examples of similar laws and proposals.
A bill is considered 'enacted' if the Texas Secretary of State has signed and filed the bill and thereby enacted it into law.
Oct 19, 11:34pm: Texas files an anti-transgender bill before 2025 → Texas enacts an anti-transgender bill before 2025
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Note that this market is defined to include only one normal legislative session, which begins January 2023. Other special sessions may be held during this time, but this is relatively unlikely.
For this legislative session, the following bills (in their current form), if enacted, would resolve this market YES:
HB41, HB42, HB122, HB672, HB436 - ban on gender affirming care for trans youth
HB23 - expansion of Texas' sports ban
The following bills would often be considered 'anti-trans' but would NOT lead to a YES resolution, because of the specific requirements of this market:
HB623 and HB708 - classifies all performances by people presenting as transgender as under "sexually oriented business"
SB162 - birth certificates
This list may become inaccurate if the text of any of these bills is amended or new bills are proposed.
