Some people are worried about the impacts of a conservative presidency transgender issues

This market is part of a series of markets trying to determine the exact dimensions on which policy might change.

For this to resolve yes, the law must pass and be signed into law. By Bathroom Bill, I mean a law restricting access to certain gendered spaces by their birth gender. For gendered sports, similar applies. I’ll also count executive orders, excluding military specific orders (and with all of the following caveats)

If the law passes, but is immediately struck down by courts such that it never actually comes into force, this market resolved no. if at least one person is prosecuted under said law, I’ll definitely resolve yes. If nobody is prosecuted, but the law is left mostly untouched by courts, I’ll also resolve yes. If nobody is prosecuted and I think courts substantially prevented the law from being meaningfully in force, I’ll resolve based on my judgement.

• Update 2025-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Enforcement Scenario Clarification:

  • Rule Changes Due to Federal Funds: If an organization alters its rules in response to changes in federal funding and at least one person is fined, banned, or otherwise penalized as a result, this qualifies as enforcement triggering a 'yes' resolution.

  • Prosecution Clause for Immediate Enforcement: The mention of prosecution covers cases where a law is passed but is immediately ruled unenforceable, ensuring there is a direct impact on individuals.