Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each country with which the United States finalizes and signs a new trade agreement between May 5, 2025, and December 31, 2025. A trade agreement is considered finalized when both parties have officially signed the document. The market will resolve to "No" for countries where no such agreement is signed within the specified timeframe.

Background:

As of May 5, 2025, the United States is engaged in various trade negotiations:

• Brazil: Negotiations are ongoing to reach an understanding on tariffs recently imposed by the U.S.

• China: Discussions are in progress, with the U.S. aiming for a fair trade deal.

• India: Negotiations for a Bilateral Trade Agreement are underway, with a potential pact expected by fall 2025.

• Japan: Recent talks have shown limited progress, with the U.S. maintaining tariffs on key sectors.

• Malaysia: The Prime Minister has indicated possible reductions in U.S. tariffs, though economic growth targets may be missed.

• Mexico: An agreement has been reached to delay tariffs until April 2, 2025, with ongoing discussions under the Fair and Reciprocal Plan on Trade.

• Ukraine: The U.S. and Ukraine have signed an economic deal aimed at promoting Ukraine's economic recovery.

Considerations:

• Trade Policy Dynamics: The U.S. trade policy is currently characterized by aggressive tariff implementations and negotiations, which may influence the likelihood of new trade agreements being finalized within the year.

• Global Economic Climate: Ongoing global trade tensions and economic uncertainties could impact the progress and completion of trade negotiations.

• Political Factors: Domestic and international political developments may affect the negotiation processes and outcomes of potential trade agreements.

Traders should monitor official announcements and credible news sources for updates on trade negotiations and agreements to make informed predictions.

• Update 2025-05-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * Resolution for specific countries (e.g., France, Germany, Italy) is based on individual trade deals signed between the US and that specific country.

  • A potential collective trade deal signed between the US and the European Union as a bloc is covered by a separate European Union option.

• Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated their interpretation of a deal being 'signed'. The original criteria state: 'A trade agreement is considered finalized when both parties have officially signed the document.' The creator's comment implies that the following will be considered sufficient evidence that a deal has been 'signed' by both parties:

  • An official announcement (e.g., from the White House or a statement by the President, as per the example provided by the creator) declaring that a deal has been signed by both the US and the other country.

This clarification suggests that such an announcement, confirming the act of signing by both parties, may be deemed sufficient for resolution purposes, even if some subsequent legislative approvals or more detailed legal document formalities might still be pending or not yet fully public.