Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the USA and Russia establish bilateral trade (goods and/or services) in 2026 that was previously prohibited under U.S. sanctions transactions occurring between U.S. and Russian entities in sectors currently restricted, such as energy, defense, financial services, or other sanctioned sectors.

The market resolves NO if no such new bilateral trade occurs during 2026, or if any resumed trade remains limited to currently exempted categories (e.g., agricultural commodities, enriched uranium under existing licenses, or humanitarian goods).

Resolution sources: U.S. Treasury Department OFAC sanctions list, U.S. Trade Representative reports, and official trade data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Background

Since the February 24, 2022, Russian invasion of Ukraine, the scope and severity of U.S. sanctions and export controls imposed on Russia have expanded significantly. U.S. goods and services trade with Russia totaled an estimated $5.2 billion in 2024, down 25.8 percent from 2023, with total goods trade at $3.5 billion. The United States continues to import and export select goods to and from Russia in sectors not entirely covered by current sanctions restrictions, including approximately $1.3 billion in fertilizer from Russia.

In the first nine months of office, the Trump administration did not join the UK, the EU and other allies and partners in imposing any new sanctions on Russia, nor did it add any new individuals or entities to its Russia sanctions list. Trump has expressed interest in a thaw in bilateral relations, including easing certain restrictions on some Russian exports.

Considerations

Where sanctions are imposed pursuant to a statute other than IEEPA (such as certain sanctions on Russia codified by CAATSA), the President may have some ability to lift sanctions, but Congress would generally also need to act to approve the action, or pass new or amended legislation to remove or modify the restrictions. This means that while the Trump administration could unilaterally ease some restrictions, comprehensive sanctions relief would likely require congressional approval, which could constrain the scope of any new bilateral trade in 2026.